Per-Capita Demand Forecasting for a Community Pilot Water Scheme in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

                @article{CRSIJ26000324,
                  author = {Itugha Okuroghoboye Diepreye, Ijaola Opololaoluwa Oladimarun},
                  title = {Per-Capita Demand Forecasting for a Community Pilot Water Scheme in  Bayelsa State, Nigeria},
                  journal = {Cosmo Research and Science International Journal},
                  year = {2026},
                  volume = {2},
                  number = {1},
                  pages = {749-756},
                  issn = {3108-1584},
                  url = {https://cosmorsij.com/published/CRSIJ26000324.pdf},
                  abstract = {Community pilot water schemes are often evaluated on whether they are working at the present time, with much less attention paid to whether their design capacity can meet the population they are intended to serve. The study evaluated a pilot water scheme (60 connections: 50 households and 10 public facilities) in Opolo, Yenagoa, Bayelsa State and used a geometric population-growth and per-capita demand forecasting model to test its adequacy over a ten-year period. Data were collected using a structured survey of 120 residents and scheme output records from the institutions. The forecasting model was based on the standard procedure in water-supply engineering of combining a geometric population projection with a per-capita design demand benchmark. Found to provide about 11.8 litres per capita per day to its served households, below the WHO 20 L/capita/day minimum threshold for basic water access. Applying the geometric growth model at 3, 5 and 7% per annum – rates consistent with population growth commonly reported by surveyed residents – it was shown that the volume required to sustain even the WHO basic-access minimum already exceeds the scheme’s fixed 100 m 3 /month supply capacity in the base year, with the deficit projected to increase to 89 and 178 m 3 /month by 2034. The Opolo pilot scheme is too small for the current population prior to any growth adjustments, with capacity expansion and not incremental extension of the existing system underpinning its transition from pilot to permanent infrastructure, results indicate.},
                  keywords = {water demand forecasting; per-capita supply; population projection; pilot water scheme; Niger Delta; environmental engineering},
                  month = {July}
        }